COMM5615辅导、辅导Python，Java编程语言
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Due Date:
Weighting:
Length:
I. Developing a Dynamic Hypothesis (60%)
1.1 The first step of the model building process is to identify the reference mode behaviour that
you are trying to understand and explain. The charts starting on the next page show the growth of
Amazon from 2007 – 2020 in terms of customer accounts, Amazon Prime subscription members,
net revenue, and marketing expenditure1. Use these charts as the reference mode and develop a
dynamic hypothesis to explain Amazon’s growth over time. Present your dynamic hypothesis as
a causal loop diagram capturing the important feedback loops you believe are responsible
for generating this growth process for Amazon. Be sure to include all of the variables included
in the reference mode charts as separate variables in your causal loop diagram. Below is a brief
description of the company.
Amazon is an international e-commerce company founded in 1997. Users create a profile and can
buy from digital content such as cloud services and eBooks to daily deals and groceries. Amazon
Prime plan gives additional benefits to customers, such as free delivery or sale discounts.
Members can also use the Amazon platform to sell their products, where Amazon handles the
storage and deliveries.
By the end of 2020, Amazon had more than 200 million Amazon Prime members worldwide and
generated over US$386 billion in revenue. Revenue grew 38% from 2019 to 2020, and the
company’s revenue comes primarily from online stores. Today, the company operates in 13
countries with specific sites and ships worldwide to over 100 countries. To grow their user base
and attract businesses to advertise on the platform, Amazon spends a great deal on marketing and
sales. In 2020, the company incurred US$22 billion on marketing expenditure worldwide.
I suggest learning more about Amazon from news articles, industry reports, and/or information on
the Amazon Investor website (https://ir.aboutamazon.com/overview/default.aspx). In particular, the
latest Amazon annual report includes a wealth of information about future business prospects for
the company. This information-gathering phase will help you generate a list of factors you believe
have been responsible for Amazon’s growth from 2007 – 2020, as well as some of the factors that
may constrain future growth. You can then work on connecting those factors into a causal loop
diagram.
Your causal loop diagram should include as many loops as you believe necessary to understand
and explain the dynamics. Diagrams with multiple, interacting feedback loops generally capture a
higher quality dynamic hypothesis – provided the causal pathways are logical and clear. Be sure to
1 The data for these charts came from Statista (https://www.statista.com/).
COMM5615 Assignment 1
Model Conceptualisation
Submit via Moodle by March 17 (1pm AEST*)
30%
6-page written report (maximum)
COMM5615 Assignment 1
2
identify the polarity of each link (‘+’ or ‘-’), the polarity of each loop (B for Balancing or R for
Reinforcing), and provide a short descriptive name for each loop. While your diagrams should be
presented clearly and legibly, it is not necessary to produce professional quality graphics. You can
draw the loops neatly by hand, or use any software package that enables you to draw curved
causal links. Content is more important than presentation in grading.
After drawing the feedback loops you identify, briefly describe in a few sentences how the loops in
your causal diagram create the dynamic behaviour shown in the reference mode charts. It is not
sufficient to just describe the reference mode. Explain each feedback loop but do not be verbose in
your descriptions. Longer descriptions will not be correlated with higher grades.
1.2 Identify some of the important feedback loops that could limit the growth of Amazon if we
extend the time horizon out to 2030. Draw these feedback loops in a causal loop diagram and
describe each loop briefly. For readability it is probably best to draw this as a separate diagram
from the causal loop diagram you drew for 1.1, but you can add these loops to the previous
diagram if that is easier.
1.3 For one of feedback loops you identified in 1.2 that could limit the growth of Amazon in the
future, what could the company’s senior managers do to push back in time or avoid this limiting
mechanism? Do not draw any additional feedback loops or diagrams; just think through the
strategy options based on your existing causal diagram and describe one or more possible courses
of action.
II. Identifying Stock and Flow Networks (40%)
Stock and flow networks are a fundamental component of the structure of business, social and
environmental systems. Stocks give systems inertia and memory and de-couple rates of flow which
gives rise to disequilibrium within systems. Stocks create pressures and motivate decisions altering
rates of flow to complete the feedback loops that regulate system performance. The ability to
identify the networks of stocks and flows is crucial for an analyst seeking to understand the
dynamics of systems.
The variables listed in questions 2.1 and 2.2 below form a network of stocks and flows. For each
variable, identify whether it is a stock or flow. Indicate the units of measure for each variable. For
example, finished inventory is a stock measured in physical units such as cars, toasters, or
widgets. For questions 2.1 and 2.2, draw the network using the standard notation.
Example: finished inventory, raw materials, production rate, shipment rate, materials arrival rate
Raw materials and finished inventory could be measured in toasters (or batches of parts required
to produce a toaster). The materials arrival rate, production rate and shipment rate could be
measured in toasters per week (or batches of parts required to produce a toaster).
2.1 Amazon Prime members, New Prime Member Subscription Rate, Prime Member Quit Rate
2.2 Tesla Dealerships, New Dealerships Under Construction, New Dealerships Under Construction
Increase Rate, Tesla Dealerships Closing, New Dealerships Opening Rate
2.3 Choose one feedback loop you identified in your answer to Question 1.1 and draw the
corresponding stock and flow diagram, including any converters/auxiliary variables and causal links
needed to close the feedback loop. You may need to add one or more variables for the stock and
flow diagram that do not appear in the causal loop diagram; this is very common. Stock and flow
diagrams typically have more detail than causal loop diagrams. There should always be at least
one stock in a feedback loop. Also, be sure to include causal link polarities and also indicate the
loop polarity. See the examples below demonstrating how the R&D and Quality reinforcing
Materials_Arrival_Rate Production_Rate Shipment_Rate
Finished_InventoryRaw_Materials
COMM5615 Assignment 1
5
feedback loop and then the Reputation and Demand balancing feedback loop can be converted
into the corresponding stock and flow diagrams (on the right).
2.4 Choose one feedback loop you identified in your answer to Question 1.2 and draw the
corresponding stock and flow diagram, including any converters/auxiliary variables and causal links
needed to close the feedback loop. You may need to add one or more variables for the stock and
flow diagram that do not appear in the causal loop diagram; this is very common. Stock and flow
diagrams typically have more detail than causal loop diagrams. There should always be at least
one stock in a feedback loop. Also, be sure to include causal link polarities and also indicate the
loop polarity. See examples below.
Examples of converting causal loops into stock and flow diagrams:
Causal loop diagram Stock & Flow diagram
Once again, while your diagrams should be presented clearly and legibly, it is not necessary to
produce professional quality graphics. Neatly hand drawn diagrams will be fine.
Due Date:
Weighting:
Length:
I. Developing a Dynamic Hypothesis (60%)
1.1 The first step of the model building process is to identify the reference mode behaviour that
you are trying to understand and explain. The charts starting on the next page show the growth of
Amazon from 2007 – 2020 in terms of customer accounts, Amazon Prime subscription members,
net revenue, and marketing expenditure1. Use these charts as the reference mode and develop a
dynamic hypothesis to explain Amazon’s growth over time. Present your dynamic hypothesis as
a causal loop diagram capturing the important feedback loops you believe are responsible
for generating this growth process for Amazon. Be sure to include all of the variables included
in the reference mode charts as separate variables in your causal loop diagram. Below is a brief
description of the company.
Amazon is an international e-commerce company founded in 1997. Users create a profile and can
buy from digital content such as cloud services and eBooks to daily deals and groceries. Amazon
Prime plan gives additional benefits to customers, such as free delivery or sale discounts.
Members can also use the Amazon platform to sell their products, where Amazon handles the
storage and deliveries.
By the end of 2020, Amazon had more than 200 million Amazon Prime members worldwide and
generated over US$386 billion in revenue. Revenue grew 38% from 2019 to 2020, and the
company’s revenue comes primarily from online stores. Today, the company operates in 13
countries with specific sites and ships worldwide to over 100 countries. To grow their user base
and attract businesses to advertise on the platform, Amazon spends a great deal on marketing and
sales. In 2020, the company incurred US$22 billion on marketing expenditure worldwide.
I suggest learning more about Amazon from news articles, industry reports, and/or information on
the Amazon Investor website (https://ir.aboutamazon.com/overview/default.aspx). In particular, the
latest Amazon annual report includes a wealth of information about future business prospects for
the company. This information-gathering phase will help you generate a list of factors you believe
have been responsible for Amazon’s growth from 2007 – 2020, as well as some of the factors that
may constrain future growth. You can then work on connecting those factors into a causal loop
diagram.
Your causal loop diagram should include as many loops as you believe necessary to understand
and explain the dynamics. Diagrams with multiple, interacting feedback loops generally capture a
higher quality dynamic hypothesis – provided the causal pathways are logical and clear. Be sure to
1 The data for these charts came from Statista (https://www.statista.com/).
COMM5615 Assignment 1
Model Conceptualisation
Submit via Moodle by March 17 (1pm AEST*)
30%
6-page written report (maximum)
COMM5615 Assignment 1
2
identify the polarity of each link (‘+’ or ‘-’), the polarity of each loop (B for Balancing or R for
Reinforcing), and provide a short descriptive name for each loop. While your diagrams should be
presented clearly and legibly, it is not necessary to produce professional quality graphics. You can
draw the loops neatly by hand, or use any software package that enables you to draw curved
causal links. Content is more important than presentation in grading.
After drawing the feedback loops you identify, briefly describe in a few sentences how the loops in
your causal diagram create the dynamic behaviour shown in the reference mode charts. It is not
sufficient to just describe the reference mode. Explain each feedback loop but do not be verbose in
your descriptions. Longer descriptions will not be correlated with higher grades.
1.2 Identify some of the important feedback loops that could limit the growth of Amazon if we
extend the time horizon out to 2030. Draw these feedback loops in a causal loop diagram and
describe each loop briefly. For readability it is probably best to draw this as a separate diagram
from the causal loop diagram you drew for 1.1, but you can add these loops to the previous
diagram if that is easier.
1.3 For one of feedback loops you identified in 1.2 that could limit the growth of Amazon in the
future, what could the company’s senior managers do to push back in time or avoid this limiting
mechanism? Do not draw any additional feedback loops or diagrams; just think through the
strategy options based on your existing causal diagram and describe one or more possible courses
of action.
II. Identifying Stock and Flow Networks (40%)
Stock and flow networks are a fundamental component of the structure of business, social and
environmental systems. Stocks give systems inertia and memory and de-couple rates of flow which
gives rise to disequilibrium within systems. Stocks create pressures and motivate decisions altering
rates of flow to complete the feedback loops that regulate system performance. The ability to
identify the networks of stocks and flows is crucial for an analyst seeking to understand the
dynamics of systems.
The variables listed in questions 2.1 and 2.2 below form a network of stocks and flows. For each
variable, identify whether it is a stock or flow. Indicate the units of measure for each variable. For
example, finished inventory is a stock measured in physical units such as cars, toasters, or
widgets. For questions 2.1 and 2.2, draw the network using the standard notation.
Example: finished inventory, raw materials, production rate, shipment rate, materials arrival rate
Raw materials and finished inventory could be measured in toasters (or batches of parts required
to produce a toaster). The materials arrival rate, production rate and shipment rate could be
measured in toasters per week (or batches of parts required to produce a toaster).
2.1 Amazon Prime members, New Prime Member Subscription Rate, Prime Member Quit Rate
2.2 Tesla Dealerships, New Dealerships Under Construction, New Dealerships Under Construction
Increase Rate, Tesla Dealerships Closing, New Dealerships Opening Rate
2.3 Choose one feedback loop you identified in your answer to Question 1.1 and draw the
corresponding stock and flow diagram, including any converters/auxiliary variables and causal links
needed to close the feedback loop. You may need to add one or more variables for the stock and
flow diagram that do not appear in the causal loop diagram; this is very common. Stock and flow
diagrams typically have more detail than causal loop diagrams. There should always be at least
one stock in a feedback loop. Also, be sure to include causal link polarities and also indicate the
loop polarity. See the examples below demonstrating how the R&D and Quality reinforcing
Materials_Arrival_Rate Production_Rate Shipment_Rate
Finished_InventoryRaw_Materials
COMM5615 Assignment 1
5
feedback loop and then the Reputation and Demand balancing feedback loop can be converted
into the corresponding stock and flow diagrams (on the right).
2.4 Choose one feedback loop you identified in your answer to Question 1.2 and draw the
corresponding stock and flow diagram, including any converters/auxiliary variables and causal links
needed to close the feedback loop. You may need to add one or more variables for the stock and
flow diagram that do not appear in the causal loop diagram; this is very common. Stock and flow
diagrams typically have more detail than causal loop diagrams. There should always be at least
one stock in a feedback loop. Also, be sure to include causal link polarities and also indicate the
loop polarity. See examples below.
Examples of converting causal loops into stock and flow diagrams:
Causal loop diagram Stock & Flow diagram
Once again, while your diagrams should be presented clearly and legibly, it is not necessary to
produce professional quality graphics. Neatly hand drawn diagrams will be fine.