代写GEOL 0820 Natural Disasters Spring,2025代写留学生Matlab程序
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Natural Disasters Spring,2025
LECTURE #1:Course Overview and Introduction to Natural Disasters Date:8 January 2025
**RECITATIONS BEGIN NEXT WEEK(Jan.13,2024)**
I.Course Details
● course instructor:
o Prof.Michael Ramsey
o Office:SRCC 509/511
o Email: [email protected]
o Office hours:Tu,Th(3:00 pm-4:00 pm)
· recitation teaching assistants (TAs):
o Emrah Ozpolat
o Office·TBA
o Email: [email protected]
o Office hours:TBA
o Adnan Deshaee
o Office·TBA
o Email: [email protected]
o Office hours:TBA
● important information:
o Website/Syllabus:
■ http://ivis.eps.pitt.edu/courseslgeol0820/
Note:this is not Canvas,but I/willpost this link there as well
bookmark this link-it is the syllabus and the link to the schedule &
online notes can be found at the bottom of the page
o exams:
■two mid-term and one final examination (all non-cumulative)
▶ multiple choice format
I will drop the lowest of the two mid-terms
everyone must take the final exam
final exam: Wednesday,4/30/25@ 8:00 am!
o recitations:
■ everyone must be registered for a recitation section
■ these are mandatory and account for a larger %of your final grade
see note on the syllabus about switching into under-enrolled recitation
sections
o curving
■ if needed,I willcurve based on the final averages of the class
■ I curve based on the average of the entire class,making the median score equal to a C+/B-
please do not ask what the curve was after each exam
o grading
■ mid-term exam =30%
■ final exam =30%
■ recitation =35%
■ class participation =5%
■ recitation grades:
solely the responsibility of the TAs
could be based on quizzes,laboratory/computer exercises,in-class problem sets and/or homework
TAs also have input into your class participation grade
■ final letter grades:
>100%: A+, 100%-92%:A,91%-90%:A-,89%-88%: B+,87%- 82%: B, 81%-80%:B-,79%-78%:C+,77%-72%:C,71%-70%:C-,
69%-68%: D+ ,67%-62%:D,61%-60%:D-,<60%:F
o email
■ I regularly communicate course information using email
■ so,please check your email and keep your pitt.edu mailbox from filling up
II.Disasters:Very relevant over the past two decades
● tsunami disaster in South
Asia (2004)
· Mt.St.Helens eruption (2004)
· multiple hurricanes in Florida
o flooding here in Pittsburgh
(2004)
● Hurricane Katrina (2005)
● Haiti earthquake(2010)
· Japan earthquake &tsunami
(2011)
● Hurricane Sandy (2012)
● Hurricane Maria (2017)
· California wildfires(every year!)
II.What is a Geohazard?
·geohazard:
o Earth processes involving the lithosphere,hydrosphere,and/or atmosphere, which releases large amounts of energy
● natural disaster:
o a geohazard interaction with human activity causing loss of life and property
o important to understand the human element without it,there would be no disaster
■ because of it,the topic/science of geohazards becomes more important every year
Banda Aceh,Indonesia(23 June 2004)
Banda Aceh,Indonesia (28 December 2004)
US Federal Government Identified Hazards(natural hazards in red)
|
Dam Safety Earthquakes Extreme Heat Fires Floods |
Nuclear Terrorism Thunderstorms Tornadoes Tsunamis |
|
Hazardous Materials Hurricanes Landslides |
Volcanoes Wildfires Winter Storms |
o WHY is the human element so critical??
■ population increase
■ more people living in hazard-prone areas
populations are becoming hyper-concentrated
■ examples:
today there are 8.1 billion people on Earth (~4 humans/sec) by 2037,there will be~9 billion people
-this growth rate has slowed in the past decade
-then,the 9 billion mark was projected to be reached by 2037
currently,55%live in urban environments
by 2050,~68%of the population will live in cities
- of these cities,40%are coastal
-more prone to severe storm and tsunami damage
-and a large majority lie in areas subject to other geohazards (volcanoes,earthquakes,etc.)
· Deadliest Disasters(1970-2020)
|
FatalitiesDateEvent
|
Earthquake |
Country China |
|
500,000 1970 |
Hurricane |
Bangladesh |
|
316,000 2010 |
Earthquake |
Haiti |
|
220,000 2004 |
Tsunami |
South Asia |
|
159,000 2010 |
Earthquake |
Haiti |
|
140,000 2008 |
Hurricane |
Myanmar |
|
139,000 1991 |
Hurricane |
Bangladesh |
|
88,000 2005 |
Earthquake |
Pakistan |
|
84,000 2008 |
Earthquake |
China |
|
66,000 1970 |
Earthquake/Landslides |
Peru |
|
56,000 2010 |
Heat Wave/Fires |
Russia |
|
40,000 1990 |
Earthquake |
Iran |
|
26,200 2003 |
Earthquake |
Iran |
● Economic Losses
number of great events economic
losses* insured losses*
1950-59
21
48.1 1.6
1960-69
27
87.5 7.1
1970-79
47
151.7 14.6
1980-89
63
247.0 29.9
1990-99 1950-1999
91 2.1 times
728.8 6.6 times
137.7 24.8 times
*in billions of $US (2005)
·Common misconceptions:
o thinking Earth is not a closed system
■ material is neither lost/gained pollution never truly disappears
o “out of sight/out of mind”
■ displaced problems
o frequency of the event
■ “major events will not happen to me (or happen where l live)”
■ human memory is short compared to the geologic time scale
● So,what is the GOAL here??
o cannot stop the geologic processes
o cannot stop the population growth/expansion
o therefore,we must try to reduce (mitigate)the hazards through:
■ scientific study
population education→ YOU!
■ changes in engineering/building practices
■ development of management plans and hazard response scenarios
IV.Time Scales
● Magnitude vs.Frequency
o (M):how powerful (amount of energy released)an event is
■ for example,high M
hazards happen with low F, but are much more
destructive
o(F):how often a given event occurs in a certain region
■ return period: number of years between the same sized event
■ equivalent to the amount of energy released in the
event
o how does this impact probability estimates?
Low High
Magnitude
· Scope
o(S):area affected by a given hazard
■ local: landslides,floods,EQ,fire..
■ regional: tsunamis,volcanoes,larger EQ,hurricanes...
■ global: large volcanoes,global warming,meteorite impacts..