代写CEG8526: Hydrosystems modelling and management Assignment 2024-2025 Coursework 2

CEG8526: Hydrosystems modelling and management

Assignment 2024-2025

Coursework 2

Background

The UK water supply industry faces several challenges due to climate change, including    increased water scarcity from warmer temperatures, changing rainfall patterns, and more frequent and severe droughts. According to the 3rd UK Climate Change Risk Assessment    ‘Future projections of more frequent and intense dry periods lead to concerns around the  availability of public water supplies in future, especially in England and parts of Wales.

Private water supplies are also at risk. ’ The UK also faces an increased demand for water, particularly in the southeast of England, where demand is already high.

Assignment

Your overall task is to assess the impacts of climate change on flow regime and water    resources on the Derwent catchment (National River Flow Archive ref. no. 28001). You   should provide a written summary of your approach and analysis of the future change in catchment flow regime under climate change and the implications for water resources, providing useful planning information to the water resources sector.

A)  Rainfall simulation

You should construct a synthetic time-series of rainfall data using a stochastic time-series model, with statistical properties consistent with the historical rainfall data for the

catchment, representing a baseline for the climate change assessment. You should then   apply appropriate climate change projections to derive downscaled, perturbed time series of projected future rainfall (we recommend you assume the transition probabilities remain

unchanged). You should use these simulations to provide an assessment of changes in rainfall under climate change and its impacts on the catchment’s hydrology and water  resources.

You should select ONE appropriate product from UKCP18 (e.g. from the probabilistic

projections or land projections from an appropriate resolution model), explaining your   choice, and then analyse the projected changes for TWO scenarios - RCP8.5 plus one    other scenario. You should also quantify the uncertainties in each scenario by exploring

the range of climate change projections for each e.g. an upper and lower estimate of change.

B)  Modelling catchment river flow

You should then run your rainfall series (baseline plus future scenarios) through the

calibrated SHETRAN catchment model for the Derwent from which you will derive baseline and projected future flows. Using the outputs from the model you should discuss the

change in catchment flow regime, for example changes in extreme or low flows.

C) Assessment of water resource

You should then run the baseline and projected future flows through a Pywr water

resources simulation model for the Upper Derwent reservoirs, using the online platform     WaterStrategy. Building on your understanding from the projected changes in rainfall and  flows, you should then analyse the outputs from the water simulation to evaluate changes in water resource availability, for example in minimum and mean simulated reservoir

storage levels. You should describe and explain the projected changes, including an analysis of the uncertainties.

Your report should explain your methodology and justify the methodological approach. It should be structured in a logical manner. Your conclusions should summarise your

findings in the context of guidance to a water resources planner looking to quantify climate risk to water supplies, along with any methodological limitations and uncertainties in your  approach and how you might address these in further work. You should also reflect on

additional factors that you might consider important to improve modelling in future assessments and decision-making.

A summary of the workflow for this assignment is provided on the last page for your guidance.

Formatting and indicative marking schedule

Report format: the report should be a maximum of 4,000 words (excluding titles/contents, figure and table captions, and references) and use 11pt font with normal spacing.

Marking criteria and schedule: this coursework comprises 65% of the overall module assessment. It will be marked according to the standard SAgE faculty marking criteria (see information provided on Canvas) taking into account the following:

•     presentation and structure of the report, including clear figures;

•     ability to investigate a problem using an appropriate experimental approach. Credit will be given for going beyond the taught material, including additional methodological developments;

•     ability to understand and apply relevant hydro-informatic models to derive

appropriate quantitative outputs to support management of water resources;

•     understanding of the basis for application of outputs from climate models to assess hydrological impacts;

•     clarity of overall argument, supported by evidence from modelling, and supported by references where appropriate.

Marks will be allocated as follows:

Item	Percent Allocated
Introduction	5%
Stochastic rainfall model and analysis	15%
Hydrological impact analysis	25%
Water system impact analysis	40%
Conclusion	15%

Submission date: Monday 20th January 2025, 2.00pm

Summary of workflow and models:

A. Stochastic rainfall model                       Comparison with

•    Historical rainfall simulation of N years of synthetic data   •    Climate change rainfall simulation(s) of N years using perturbed synthetic data	Observed rainfall statistics for baseline period   Simulated rainfall from the baseline period
B. Shetran model	Comparison with
•    Climate change baseline simulation	No comparison needed, as this is the baseline run (there is no river flow record corresponding to the synthetic rainfall)
•    Climate change scenario simulations (multiple simulations)	Simulated river flow from the climate    change baseline run. (Note: you do not need to use the objective functions for these comparisons).
C.  Pywr water resources model	Comparison with
•    Climate change baseline simulation	No comparison needed
•    Climate change scenario simulations (multiple simulations)	Simulated water resource outputs from the climate change baseline run.